ANR-770 MARKETING ALTERNATIVES FOR FEEDER CATTLE
ANR-770, Reprinted Feb 1999. J. Walter Prevatt,Extension Economist, Professor, Agricultural
Economics and Rural Sociology, Auburn University
| Marketing Alternatives for Feeder Cattle |
Are you a feeder cattle producer worrying if this year's gross revenues
will be enough to cover production expenses? Would you like to find a way
to make certain that your operation will cover these expenses and perhaps
even lock in a profit? You may be able to achieve this goal using a combination
of feeder cattle market alternatives.
Marketing is usually the most difficult management task that the feeder
cattle producer has to perform. Proper marketing can make the difference
between profit and loss in the feeder cattle business. As is true of production
programs and management practices, many marketing alternatives are available
to the feeder cattle producer. Most producers spend much of their time and
effort improving production practices while spending very little time on
the marketing of their product. However, time spent marketing feeder cattle
in today's complex economic environment can pay larger dividends than time
spent on improving or implementing many production practices.
Feeder cattle producers have more flexibility in marketing than they
often realize. Currently, at least six viable alternatives for marketing
feeder cattle (600- to 800-pound yearlings) are available. These include
private treaty sales (farmers, order buyers, etc.), local auction barns,
telephone and video auctions, satellite video auctions, futures hedging,
and futures options. In addition, other market opportunities, which may
require some development, include forward contracts, participation contracts,
and retained ownership with sale as fed cattle.
Market Alternatives
The expanded number of marketing alternatives available to today's feeder
cattle producer provide opportunities to make a wide range of market choices.
Each market alternative has unique features. The primary features that may
be used to describe feeder cattle markets include competitive bid price,
market knowledge, convenience and simplicity of sale arrangement, market
cost, market planning, and market price protection. Feeder cattle producers
select those markets which complement their management objectives. Producers
may choose one or more market alternatives to sell their feeder cattle.
These marketing alternatives provide the opportunity to obtain the most
profitable price or prices for feeder cattle. Note that this does not mean
the highest price.
A feature that is becoming increasingly important to feeder cattle producers
is price protection. Feeder cattle markets may be divided into two price
protection categories: markets without price protection and markets with
price protection (Figure 1). A distinguishing feature of markets without
price protection is that the seller willingly accepts the going price when
he or she is ready to sell. In sharp contrast, the use of markets with price
protection allows the seller to manage price risk and choose to accept a
price that will meet a given price objective (break-even price, production
costs plus profit, etc.).
Figure 1. Feeder cattle market
alternatives
| Feeder Cattle Market Alternatives |
Markets Without Price Protection |
Private Treaty |
| Auction Barn |
| Telephone And Video Auction |
| Satellite Video Auction |
|
| Markets With Price Protection |
Forward Contracts |
| Futures Market- Hedging |
| Futures Market- Options |
Markets Without Price Protection
The market alternatives without price protection are primarily cash market
sales. They include private treaty sales (farmers, cattle producers, or
order buyers), local auction barns, telephone and video auctions, and satellite
video auctions. Selling in the cash market is usually easy since it requires
a minimum of planning and market knowledge.
Private Treaty. Private treaty feeder cattle sales include primarily
sales between either producers or a producer and an order buyer. This sale
represents a private negotiation between the buyer and seller. The use of
private treaty sales has been common practice for many years.
The cost of private treaty sales is minimal, and the seller controls
the marketing process. However, this marketing method requires the seller
to be knowledgeable about market prices and practices. Also, the producer
accepts the risks associated with cash payment.
Local Auction Barn. The local auction barn is often the simplest
and most convenient feeder cattle cash market. This market alternative will
usually attract a reasonable number of buyers, which allows the seller to
receive a competitive price for feeder cattle. The local auction barn also
permits the seller to bring to market a wide range of feeder cattle (varying
in size and quality).
Reliable and prompt cash payment is available from this marketing alternative.
However, the cost of this service is usually higher than that of other marketing
alternatives. Cattle are typically sold on a flat commission (percentage
of gross receipts or dollars per head) plus additional fees for yardage,
insurance, and other services.
Telephone, Video, and Satellite Auctions. Telephone and prerecorded
video auctions and satellite video auctions require more planning and market
knowledge than using the local auction. A major advantage of these market
alternatives for feeder cattle producers is that they increase the potential
number of buyers and sellers. They also can be less expensive to use and
often attain higher market prices for good quality feeder cattle. However,
the seller must offer truckload lots (60 to 70 head) of uniform, good quality
feeder cattle to ensure competitive bidding from buyers.
Telephone and prerecorded video auctions have been successful in many
locations where groups of producers form feeder cattle marketing associations.
The marketing association provides adequate numbers of feeder cattle. The
large numbers of cattle attract many buyers, which enhances competitive
bidding. These sales often involve communication between the buyer and seller
before the announced sale date.
Satellite video auctions offer advantages to both the buyer and the seller.
The buyer is able to purchase truckload quantities of reasonably uniform
and healthy feeder cattle right off the farm. Feeder cattle that are healthy
and spend less time under stressful conditions usually show higher performance
in the feedlot. In addition, the seller benefits from minimum stress and
shrink (selling more pounds of beef) as compared to the local auction market.
The seller can also eliminate transportation costs and reduce the total
cost of marketing cattle. Telephone and video auctions and satellite video
auctions frequently attain higher sale prices than other cash market alternatives.
Producers should be aware that private treaty sales, telephone and video
auctions, and satellite video auctions sometimes use a sliding price scale
based on weight. Producers should be able to closely approximate the average
sale weight and should be knowledgeable of the appropriate magnitude for
the price slide.
For instance, a $3.00 per cwt. price slide would result in reducing (increasing)
the market price by $1.00 for every 33-1/3
pounds above (below) an estimated sale weight. Therefore, the seller should
make sure that the estimated weight is reasonably accurate and the magnitude
of the price slide is consistent with price adjustments seen in the feeder
cattle cash market (local auction market or other reported sales).
In other words, the agreed-upon price slide for 700- to 800-pound, medium-frame
#l feeder steers should be consistent with the price difference observed
from the sale of 700- versus 800-pound, medium-frame #l feeder steers in
other markets (see local Fed-State Livestock Market News, USDA). Note that
the price slide is often sensitive to such factors as feeder cattle grade,
weight, sex, and the time of year for a given location.
Markets With Price Protection
Feeder cattle markets with price protection were developed in response
to the mutual need of sellers and buyers to avoid widely fluctuating prices.
The use of markets with price protection allows the feeder cattle producer
to shift some of the market price risk to others. Forward pricing market
alternatives such as forward contracting, futures hedging, and futures options
are the typical markets which provide price protection to the feeder cattle
producer. These marketing alternatives require more intensive planning and
market knowledge than cash marketing alternatives.
Forward Contracting. Forward contracting is simply a contractual
arrangement between a feeder cattle buyer and a seller to exchange feeder
cattle for a prearranged price at some future date. This marketing alternative
allows the buyer and seller to eliminate price risk.
Forward contracts, if they do not contain rigorous constraints, can be
attractive because of the ease and convenience of developing and fulfilling
the contract. To use this marketing alternative, the producer needs to know
costs of production, stocker weight, weight gain, and profit objectives.
A major disadvantage of a forward contract is default risk.
More intricate forward contracts that allow for cash market interaction
are possible. These are sometimes called participation contracts.
These contracts usually guarantee a fixed lower-limit price and offer up
to 100 percent of the increase if prices happen to rise. A major shortcoming
of this marketing alternative is that it is not always available, particularly
in the Southeast, where few feedlots exist.
Futures Market Hedging. The hedging marketing alternative involves
using the futures market. One such futures market is the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange (CME), where a feeder cattle contract consists of a 50,000-pound
lot of 700- to 799- pound, medium-frame #1 and medium- and large-frame #1
feeder steers. Trading contract months are January, March, April, May, August,
September, October, and November.
Trading on the futures market is neither simple nor magic. Futures contracts
are bought and sold in the futures market by hedgers (producers and merchandisers)
and speculators. A hedge is a means of managing price risk by taking a position
in the futures market opposite to that held in the cash market. To speculate
is to assume a pre-existing market or business risk for the opportunity
of making a profit.
The bids and counter-bids offered by the hedgers and speculators result
in an estimate of the value of a given commodity at some future date. The
bid is based on currently available demand and supply information for the
commodity. This estimate of value will change frequently during the course
of a trading day (3 to 4 hours) as new information (adjustments in fed cattle
market prices, feed prices, substitute meat prices, weather, trade policies,etc.)
becomes available and traders' expectations about future prices change.
After receiving new information, traders evaluate price opportunities or
reevaluate their positions. Some will buy and others will sell, depending
on their respective pricing opportunities, objectives, and outlook.
When you buy or sell feeder cattle futures contracts, you are required
to deposit funds in a margin account with your broker. The deposit represents
a small percentage of the value of each contract. Additional margin deposits
may be necessary if the futures price moves against your position in the
market--if you're going short and the futures price increases, or if you're
going long and the price decreases. The amount of the margin requirement
will be mostly offset by the adjustment in the cash market. This margin
requirement ensures financial integrity to the futures market. Bankers who
understand the futures market will work with producers in setting up a margin
account to meet any margin calls.
Understanding Basis. Basis is the price difference between the
cash and futures market prices. The variation in the basis between the cash
and futures market is caused by the changes of the prices that clear each
market. As you might expect, the basis is affected by many factors, such
as transportation and marketing costs and seasonal demand and supply pattern
of the local market. The basis, however, is more predictable than feeder
cattle cash prices. Historical price information should be used for your
location and type of cattle (grade, sex, weight, etc.) to estimate an appropriate
basis for your market situation for a given month.
Knowledge of the local basis for feeder cattle is necessary to determine
whether the futures market price will result in an acceptable target market
price. For example, it is October and you plan to sell feeder cattle in
May. The May feeder cattle futures contract is trading at $75.00 per cwt.
The basis (local cash minus futures) in May, using the May feeder cattle
contract based on recent history, is $3.00 per cwt. under. That is, the
local cash price averages $3.00 per cwt. less than the May futures market
price in May. Adjusting the futures market price of $75.00 per cwt. by the
basis value of $3.00 per cwt. under results in a net price of $72.00 per
cwt. ($75.00 per cwt. - $3.00 per cwt. = $72.00 per cwt.). The producer
may choose to accept this price if it covers production expenses and a reasonable
profit.
What is the basis going to be at the delivery date? No one knows with
certainty. A review of historical basis information for a given month and
local market area will give a reasonable estimate. In essence, the hedger
accepts basis risk rather than price risk because basis risk is generally
smaller.
An Example of Hedging. In October, a feeder cattle producer has
150 weaned calves and is using a winter grazing and supplemental feed program
on 100 acres. The producer believes he will be able to produce 120,000 pounds
of feeder cattle for sale next spring. Feeder cattle futures contracts are
bought and sold on the CME in 50,000-pound units, so the producer estimates
he may use at most two contracts (100,000 pounds). Purchasing more than
two contracts would result in speculating on those contracts above his anticipated
production. So the producer would not have enough cattle to sell in the
cash market to offset an undesirable price change.
The producer estimates he needs a target futures market price (sometimes
called a price objective) of $65.25 per cwt. to cover production expenses,
basis, and to earn a reasonable profit. He contacts a local futures market
broker, who receives a commission for each transaction, and discusses market
conditions and alternatives. Current May feeder cattle futures contracts
are at 6350 ($63.50 per cwt.). The producer waits for contract prices to
rise to 6525 ($65.25 per cwt.). When contract prices reach 6525, the producer
sells two feeder cattle contracts with delivery set in May. In the market,
selling contracts is called "going short"; buying is called "going
long." The local basis in May is $2.00 per cwt. under. In this example,
the producer estimated he needed $63.25 per cwt. to cover total production
costs and a reasonable profit. He also estimated that the cash price in
May would average $2.00 per cwt. less than the futures market price. Therefore,
the target futures market price is $65.25 per cwt.
It is important to recognize that during some years the futures market
may not offer the producer an opportunity to choose to accept a futures
price that meets or exceeds the target futures market price. The producer
may want to consider accepting a futures price that is less than the target
market price if he expects the futures price to further decline.
Let's assume it is now May, and May feeder cattle futures prices have
dropped $5.25 per cwt. (down to $60.00 per cwt.). The cash market price
is $58.00 per cwt. The producer buys two May futures contracts at 6000 ($60.00
per cwt.) to cancel the short positions he took last October. As a result,
he makes $5.25 per cwt. ($65.25 - $60.00) in the futures market because
he sold May futures contracts at 6525 ($65.25 per cwt.) last October. This
sale results in a realized price of $63.25 per cwt. ($58.00 per cwt. in
the cash market + $5.25 per cwt. in the futures market = $63.25 per cwt.),
which covers the production costs and a reasonable profit.
Hedging Wrap-up. To achieve the price protection provided by hedging
in the futures market, a feeder cattle producer simply takes the position
in the futures market opposite to the one held in the cash market. In other
words, a producer wanting to establish a price on a group of weaned calves
that will be sold as feeder cattle in the future may choose to sell a futures
contract (go short). The producer trades the futures contract that will
mature closest to but not before the anticipated cash market sale date.
So, if prices decline, the feeder cattle producer will make money in the
futures market that will counteract the loss in the cash market. However,
if the price goes up, the feeder cattle producer will lose money in the
futures market but will make money in the cash market.
It is important to remember that hedging is a market strategy to be used
to reduce market price variation. By hedging, the trader tries to fix a
price and ensure price stability. If the market price goes up, the hedged
producer gives up windfall profits for stability.
The concept of hedging is simple. But gathering the necessary production
costs and market price information is time-consuming and cumbersome. Furthermore,
knowing when to place the hedge in order not to lose the opportunity for
the best price in the market is a difficult decision to make. Feeder cattle
producers who want to reduce market price risk should strive to attain a
futures price (also called a target market price or price objective) that
covers the costs of production and includes a reasonable return on investment.Those
producers using the futures market for the first time should study the market
and seek professional assistance. These measures will help improve the chances
of a successful trade.
Options. Another method of managing the price risk for feeder
cattle is the use of options. A feeder cattle option is a legally binding
contract that gives the option buyer the right, but not the obligation,
to buy or sell a feeder cattle futures contract under specific conditions
in exchange for the payment of a premium.
Option buyers seeking price protection pay a premium, but there is no
margin requirement. Option sellers, those willing to accept the risk of
declining or rising prices, are required to meet margin requirements as
prescribed by the exchange. Option premiums, the price of an option paid
by an option buyer, are determined in a competitive market of the respective
commodity exchange (trading pit of Chicago Mercantile Exchange, etc.).
The two types of options are calls and puts. The call option conveys
to its buyer the right to buy, while a put option conveys the right to sell
a futures contract at a later date. These memory devices may help you to
distinguish between calls and puts: the call option suggests "call
from them" or "buy from them" while the put option implies
"put it on them" or "sell it to them." Be careful not
to misunderstand these two instruments. Each type of option requires both
a buyer and a seller (Figure 2). Puts and calls are not opposite sides of
the same transaction.
Figure 2. Futures market options
| Options |
Call |
Buy |
| Sell |
|
| Put |
Buy |
| Sell |
A call option gives the option buyer the right, but not the obligation,
to buy a certain futures contract at a specified price during the life of
the option. The buyer of a call option receives protection against rising
prices without giving up the chance to benefit from lower prices. Therefore,
a feeder cattle buyer, such as a fed cattle producer or feedlot operator,
would be interested in the purchase of a call option and would be an option
buyer.
The opposite position, the option seller (seller of a call option in
this example), is generally someone who is willing to accept the risk of
rising prices. The option seller does not expect a rise in prices associated
with the given commodity for the amount of the premium paid by the buyer
of the call option. The commodity exchange will receive the premium paid
by the buyer and deposit it in the margin account of the option seller.
The option seller will retain the entire premium if futures prices do not
rise. However, if futures prices rise, the option seller pays for the price
increase through deductions from the margin account. If the price rise exceeds
the premium, he will have to pay out more than the premium. In essence,
the option seller must post margin money and face margin calls. A strictly
regulated clearinghouse oversees all transactions and guarantees performance
of all contracts.
A put option gives the option buyer the right, but not the obligation,
to sell a given futures contract at a specified price during the life of
the option. The buyer of a put option obtains protection against declining
prices without giving up the chance to benefit from rising prices. The feeder
cattle producer may be interested in the purchase of a put option. The option
seller for the put option works similarly to the option seller of the call
option described above. In other words, someone must take the opposite position.
Let's look at a simplified example of buying a put option on a feeder
cattle futures contract. Feeder cattle option contracts specify the same
units (50,000 pounds) and time periods as futures contracts.
In October, a feeder cattle producer buys two May feeder cattle put options
with a strike price of $70.00 for a premium of 210 ($2.10 per cwt. or $2,100
= two contracts at 500 cwt. per contract at $2.10 per cwt.), which gives
him the right to sell May feeder cattle at 7000 ($70.00 per cwt.). He is
a buyer of put options. The strike price is the price at which one may buy
or sell the underlying futures contract upon the exercise of an option.The
futures market price must decrease below the $70.00 strike price for the
feeder cattle producer to profitably exercise the put options. In October,
the May futures market price was $72.00 per cwt.
May corresponds with the expected length of his stockering program (240
days to carry weaned calves from 400 to 799 pounds). If, in May, the feeder
cattle futures market price is 6500 ($65.00 per cwt.), the producer could
exercise his right to sell at 7000 ($70.00 per cwt.) or he could sell the
option to someone else. The local basis in May is $2.00 per cwt. under.
The local cash market price in May is $63.00 per cwt.
In this example, the feeder cattle producer would have realized a market
price of $65.90 per cwt. from buying the put option ($63.00 per cwt. in
the cash market + $5.00 per cwt. in the futures market - $2.10 per cwt.
for the put option premium = $65.90 per cwt.). The realized price of $65.90
per cwt. exceeds the target market price of $65.25 per cwt.
Alternatively, if in May, the May feeder cattle futures price trades
at 7800 ($78.00 per cwt.), the producer would not exercise the right to
sell at 7000 ($70.00 per cwt.). He would simply let the option expire. This
example assumes that the price movement (increase) in the futures market
price is also observed in the local feeder cattle cash market. The local
cash price would be $76.00 per cwt. In this scenario, the producer should
realize $73.90 per cwt. for his feeder cattle (local cash price minus premium
paid or $76.00 - $2.10). So in this scenario, depending strictly on the
cash market (doing nothing) would have resulted in the largest dollar increase,
but the producer would not have been protected against declining prices.
Putting It All Together
A feeder cattle producer who buys stocker calves in October and sells
feeder cattle in April is interested in comparing the prices that various
market alternatives could deliver. Which alternative--selling in the cash
market, placing a hedge (that is, going short or selling an April contract),
or purchasing a put option--will give the best price?
Let's examine the effect of a $10.00 per cwt. price increase with these
three market alternatives. Table 1 describes a situation where the futures
market feeder cattle price increases from $80.00 to $90.00 per cwt. between
October and April.
Table 1. Feeder Cattle Price Increase from $80 Per
Cwt. to $90 Per Cwt [1]
| Cash Market |
Futures - Hedge |
Futures - Options |
| October 10 |
October 10 |
October 10 |
| Do nothing, hope for $85.00 |
Sell April contract at $80.00
Lock-in price = $77.00 |
Buy April put at $80.00 - $2.00 - $3.00 =
$75.00 price floor |
| April 15 |
April 15 |
April 15 |
| Sell feeder cattle for $87.00 in cash market |
Buy April contract back at $90.00
Sell feeder cattle for $87.00 in cash market |
Let option expire
(Lose $2.00 premium)
Sell feeder cattle for $87.00 in cash market |
| Results |
Results |
Results |
| $87.00 per cwt. |
$87.00 - $ 10.00 = $77.00 per cwt. |
$87.00 - $2.00 = $85.00 per cwt. |
| [1] Feeder cattle market analysis assumes basis is $3.00 under
and $2.00 premium on October 10. |
On October 10 the feeder cattle producer has three alternatives: In the
cash market he may do nothing and hope to sell for $85.00 in April. In the
futures market he may hedge by selling an April futures contract at $80.00.
Or in the options market he may purchase an April put option for $2.00 per
cwt. with a strike price of $80.00 per cwt. The futures market basis (cash
minus futures market price) for April is $3.00 per cwt. under.
It is now April 15, and it is time to sell the feeder cattle. In all
three alternatives, the feeder cattle will be sold in the cash market. Remember,
a $10.00 per cwt. price increase occurred in the futures market between
October and April. If the feeder cattle producer had chosen to do nothing
in October, he would now sell the feeder cattle at $87.00 per cwt. in the
cash market. If the producer had placed a hedge in October (sold an April
contract), he would now buy an April futures contract at $90.00 per cwt.
and sell the feeder cattle for $87.00 per cwt. in the cash market. However,
if he had purchased an April put option at $80.00 per cwt. during October,
he would do nothing and let the put option expire and sell the feeder cattle
for $87.00 per cwt. in the cash market.
The results of a $10.00 per cwt. price increase for these three alternatives
ranged from a cash price of $77.00 to $87.00 per cwt. Doing nothing and
selling in the cash market resulted in the highest alternative sale price
at $87.00 per cwt. Hedging the feeder cattle in the futures market resulted
in $77.00 per cwt. ($87.00 cash market - $10.00 loss in the futures market).
Buying an April put option in the futures market resulted in a market price
of $85.00 per cwt. ($87.00 cash market - $2.00 premium for the put option).
When the market price increases, it is obvious that the alternative of
doing nothing and selling in the cash market is optimal. However, seldom
do you know with certainty that the market price is going to increase. Hence,
the other two marketing alternatives provide the producer with market price
risk protection from declining prices.
Conversely, let's now examine the effect of a $10.00 per cwt. price decrease
with these three market alternatives. Table 2 describes a scenario where
the feeder cattle futures price decreases from $80.00 to $70.00 per cwt.
between October and April.
Table 2. Feeder Cattle Price Decrease from $80
Per Cwt. to $70 Per Cwt (1)
| Cash Market |
Futures - Hedge |
Futures - Options |
| October 10 |
October 10 |
October 10 |
| Do nothing, hope for $85.00 |
Sell April contract at $80.00
Lock-in price = $77.00 |
Buy April put at $80.00 - $2.00 - $3.00 =
$75.00 price floor |
| April 15 |
April 15 |
April 15 |
| Sell feeder cattle for $67.00 in cash market |
Buy April contract back at $70.00
Sell feeder cattle for $67.00 in cash market |
Exercise option at $80.00
(Buy $70.00 April contract)
Sell feeder cattle for $67.00 in cash market |
| Results |
Results |
Results |
| $67.00 per cwt. |
$67.00 + $10.00 = $77.00 per cwt. |
$67.00 + $10.00 - $2.00 = $75.00 per cwt. |
| [1] Feeder cattle market analysis assumes basis is $3.00 under
and $2.00 premium on October 10. |
Again on October 10 the feeder cattle producer has the same three alternatives
described earlier: doing nothing now and selling in the cash market, placing
a hedge by selling an April futures market contract at $80.00 per cwt.,
or buying a futures market put option for $2.00 per cwt. The futures market
basis (cash minus futures market prices) is $3.00 per cwt. under for April.
It is now April 15, and it is time to sell the feeder cattle. Remember,
all cattle will be sold in the cash market and a $10.00 per cwt. price decrease
occurred in both the cash and futures markets between October and April.
If the producer had chosen to do nothing in October, he would now sell the
feeder cattle at $67.00 per cwt. in the cash market. Note that the cash
market price is exactly $3.00 per cwt. below the futures market price of
$70.00 per cwt. That is, the basis is $3.00 per cwt. under. If the feeder
cattle producer had placed a hedge (sold an April futures contract for $80.00
per cwt.) in October, he would now buy an April futures contract for $70.00
per cwt. and sell the feeder cattle for $67.00 per cwt. in the cash market.
However, if he had purchased an April put option with an $80.00 per cwt.
strike price in October, he would now exercise the put option (sell an $80.00
per cwt. April contract) and also sell the feeder cattle for $67.00 per
cwt. in the cash market.
The results of a $10.00 per cwt. futures market price decrease for the
three marketing alternatives ranged from a cash price of $67.00 to $77.00
per cwt. This time, doing nothing and selling in the cash market produced
the lowest market price at $67.00 per cwt. Hedging the feeder cattle in
the futures market resulted in the highest market price at $77.00 per cwt.
($67.00 cash market + $10.00 gain in the futures market). Buying a put option
in the futures market resulted in a market price of $75.00 per cwt. ($67.00
cash market + $10.00 gain in the futures market - $2.00 premium for the
put option = $75.00 per cwt.).
Thus, with a futures market price decrease, hedging the feeder cattle
in the futures market is preferable. However, seldom do you know with certainty
that the market price is going to decrease. Thus, as illustrated, using
the futures market by either placing a hedge or buying a put option provides
the producer with market price protection from declining prices.
Illustrated in Figure 3 is the relationship of the cash price received
and futures price at expiration for the three feeder cattle marketing alternatives.
The previously described scenarios of price increase or decrease may be
viewed by beginning with the $80.00 per cwt. futures price at option expiration.
When the futures market price increases (moves to the right), the highest
market price received is the cash market alternative. Conversely, when the
futures price decreases (moves to the left), the highest market price received
occurs for the hedged market alternative.
 |
|
Figure 3. Feeder cattle marketing
alternatives, assuming basis is $3.00 under and $2.00 premium. |
Regardless of a futures price increase or decrease, the put option alternative
is always second best. The market price for the put option alternative ranges
from $75.00 to $85.00 per cwt. The market price floor established by the
put option is $75.00 per cwt. between $70.00 and $80.00 per cwt. for the
futures price at expiration. When the futures price at expiration increases
above $80.00 per cwt., the market price received for the put option increases
correspondingly but is always $2.00 per cwt. below the cash market price
alternative. The hedge alternative is a constant $77.00 per cwt. ($80.00
futures market - $3.00 basis), while the cash market price received ranges
from $67.00 to $87.00 per cwt.
Obviously, no one knows with certainty if the futures market price will
increase or decrease. Thus, a feeder cattle producer can gain market price
risk protection with either the hedge or put option market alternatives.
The hedge market alternative should be used to guard against plummeting
prices at a price that will meet the producers' price objective (cost of
production, management fee, capital replacement, etc.). The put option market
alternative should be used when the producer wants to establish a price
floor and have an opportunity to benefit from any price increases. Therefore,
the choice between the hedge and the put option marketing alternatives depends
on what an individual prefers: an acceptable market price that has no opportunity
of price adjustment or a lower acceptable market price that may increase
with market price increases.
Proving a Profit
The basic market alternatives available to the feeder cattle producer
have their advantages and disadvantages. None of these marketing alternatives
will provide the highest feeder cattle price year after year. Therefore,
to take advantage of price opportunities, the producer must become a market
watcher. Watching the market will require 15 minutes each day to gather
and evaluate market information. Of course, as the producer becomes interested
and successful, he will spend more time on this aspect of the operation.
This small investment of time can pay large dividends and perhaps help avoid
catastrophic market situations.
Anyone can sell, but few producers can market feeder cattle with skill.
Profit is often the difference between employing a well-researched market
strategy and accepting what the cash market will provide. When developing
marketing strategies, the producer should explore the price opportunities
of alternative markets and the potential boundaries of expected price movements.
The key to making the feeder cattle enterprise profitable is matching a
reliable production program with a well-researched market strategy. The
feeder cattle producer can greatly improve profits and gain price protection
by using marketing strategies.
In most instances, bad markets cannot be blamed for financial losses.
A thoughtful producer offsets the hazards of bad markets by following well-laid
plans and safe marketing practices. Reliable and effective marketing practices
do not come to a person naturally--they must be learned through study and
experience. There are no magical formulas for making a profit with feeder
cattle, but a thorough examination of price opportunities in alternative
markets will increase the chances of realizing a profit.
Numerous terms frequently used in futures hedging and options are not
mentioned in this publication because of limited space. This effort covered
only those terms essential to present the concepts of hedging and options
in the futures market. Many trading techniques and sophisticated strategies
have been developed for use in the futures market. For more information
on these topics contact the author or a professional commodity broker analyst.
For Further Reading
This publication is a portion of Chapter 2 in Extension publication ANR-1100,
Alabama Beef Cattle Producers Guide.
For more information, contact your county Extension office. Look
in your telephone directory under your county's name to find the number.
For more information, contact your county Extension office. Visit http://www.aces.edu/counties or look in your telephone directory under your county's name to find contact information.
Issued in furtherance of Cooperative Extension work in agriculture and
home economics, Acts of May 8 and June 30, 1914, and other related
acts, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The Alabama
Cooperative Extension System (Alabama A&M University and Auburn
University) offers educational programs, materials, and equal
opportunity employment to all people without regard to race, color,
national origin, religion, sex, age, veteran status, or disability.
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