ALABAMA A&M and AUBURN UNIVERSITIES

Auburn, June 4---The first official U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast for the 1999 cotton crop is 18 million bales -- up 29 percent from 1998.  U.S. cotton stocks also are expected to increase significantly next season, according to Bob Goodman, an Extension economist with the Alabama Cooperative Extension System.

The increase in stocks is due to the estimated 3.6 million bales already in stock, and the fact that production is projected to exceed total demand this season. "Based on these estimates, U.S. stocks would rise almost 2 million bales to 5.5 million, resulting in a very high stocks-to-use ratio of 34 percent, which would depress prices significantly, " Goodman adds.

In 1999/2000, domestic mill use is forecast to rise only slightly --  to 10.6 million bales -- because the continued rise in textile imports is expected to almost offset the anticipated growth in retail cotton consumption.

The USDA report projects U.S. cotton planted  in1999 at 13.9 million acres, with projected harvested area of 13 million acres. The projected yield is 665 pounds per harvested acre.
Goodman says marketing advice for 1999 continues to be "price cotton early."

In Alabama, most cotton acreage was planted by mid-May, but states such as Arizona, Georgia and South Carolina were as much as 20 percent behind the 5-year average of acres planted.  In contrast, California and Missouri showed plantings above the average and ahead of last season.

Goodman advises growers not to be distracted by supply problems because the market is demand-driven.

"A few weather problems may cause blips in the market's continued decline, but it will continue to decline barring a major catastrophe in several growing regions."

SOURCE:  DR. BOB GOODMAN, Extension economist, Alabama Cooperative Extension System, (334) 844-5633.