Life Expectancy in Reverse?

The steady advances in life expectancy that have occurred within the United States and much of the Western world are, by every measure, stunning, especially when one considers how precarious a thing life was only a century ago.

U.S. life expectancy hit another record this year, climbing to 77.6 years as deaths from heart disease and cancer continue to fall.

At the turn of the last century, as industrialization gained full steam, U.S. citizens could expect to live to about age 48 --- one of the bitter realities of life affected by a number of factors, including the fact that one in 10 children died in infancy. That was actually an improvement from Roman imperial times, when the life expectancy hovered somewhere around age 25 and most everyone lost a loved one to what were then commonplace diseases, such as smallpox and whooping cough.

Medical advances scarcely dreamt of only a century ago have relegated these stark realities to the distant past --- or have they? Is it possible that these huge medical strides ultimately will be outpaced by persistently poor lifestyle habits, particularly the spiking rates of obesity and the accompanying medical problems --- hypertension, diabetes and heart disease --- associated with them?

Many health experts think so, including Dr. Robert Keith, an Alabama Cooperative Extension System nutritionist and Auburn University professor of nutrition and food science.

“So far, it hasn’t happened yet, but the groups where we’re seeing the highest rates of obesity are still comparatively young,” Keith says.

As these younger groups reach older ages, Keith and other experts have speculated the spike in premature deaths from obesity-related diseases could increase possibly to the point that it erodes and ultimately reverses the steady gains in life expectancy.

“Obesity is related to diabetes, which is epidemic or near epidemic in the United States,” Keith says. “Add to that hypertension, which is also reaching epidemic levels, though, fortunately, there are effective drugs to treat this condition.”

On top of this, he says, are cardiovascular diseases and various types of cancers that have been linked with obesity.

Keith concedes it is possible that advances in medical science ultimately will be able to address this mounting medical problem, just as they have other chronic medical conditions. It’s estimated that roughly half of Americans living in 2000 would not have been around without the medical advances of the 20th century, according to University of Pennsylvania demographer Samuel H. Preston.

For now, Keith says, it’s a “kind of wait and see.”

“We won’t know it until it happens.”

“Obesity affects you at many different levels,” Keith says. “Unless we correct that central problem --- even though we can treat some effects of obesity --- there are other things going on that may be beyond the ability of medicine to address completely.”

The result could be a reversal of life expectancy within the next couple of decades.

One thing is certain: Researchers have developed a method to determine just how much how many years are sacrificed in terms of obesity. They’ve estimated the loss could run as high as 14 years depending on the level of obesity.

This would not be the first time a nation’s life expectancy has declined due to poor lifestyle habits. Despite comparatively high levels of political stability and rising economic fortunes, Russia’s life expectancy levels continue to decline, according to a recent World Bank report --- a decline attributed to lifestyle-related conditions, including alcoholism, smoking, violence, poor dietary habits and traffic accidents.

If this trend is not reversed, the report states, the country's population is expected to decline by more than 30 percent during the next 50 years.

The report further states that serious social problems likely will accompany this steep population decline, including a disproportionately high population of pensioners and a lack of personnel to guard the border and to maintain security of the nation’s nuclear sector.

Posted by Jim Langcuster at December 12, 2005 02:21 PM | TrackBack